2004 Presidential Elections

From Andrea Moro, University of Minnesota.

Probabilistic prediction and analysis of polls

Last prediction at midnight of November 1, 2004: Bush wins with probability 54% (2.004k.com), or 65.4% (realclearpolitics.com)
Picture with the electoral predictions page views between October 16 and election day.
Exit polls update: several readers have warned me that CNN changed the exit polls at 1am to reflect actual results. Note: this is standard practice. I also added a short analysis of the exit polls posted on slate.com in the afternoon of election day.
Regular polls analysis (later, if I have time)

The Wall Street Journal reports on 4/11 who was the winner among the sites using probabilistic methods :-)
10/26 Wall Street Journal article mentioning this web page

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