2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions

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From Andrea Moro, University of Minnesota. Last auto-update: November 02nd, 12:26 AM Central

Raw data: polls used in the simulations

Battleground states on top sorted by votes. Other states sorted alphabetically. Check the websites for additional info and trends.

Data used in the computation (jump to the other info table)

2.004k.com realclearpolitics.com
State (votes) Bush Kerry M. of err. Bush Kerry M. of err.
Battleground states
Florida (27) 44 49 3.7 48 48 4.1
Pennsylvania (21) 47 49 3 48 49 3.9
Ohio (20) 50 47 3.7 49 43 4.1
Michigan (17) 45 47 4 46 52 4.1
New Jersey (15) 43 48 3.1 42 42 3.0
Missouri (11) 49 44 4 52 47 3.8
Wisconsin (10) 48 45 3.7 45 51 4.1
Minnesota (10) 43 51 3 45 51 4.1
Colorado (9) 50 43 4 50 47 3.8
Iowa (7) 48 44 3.7 47 50 4.4
Oregon (7) 44 50 4 44 50 4.0
Arkansas (6) 51 43 4 51 46 4.3
New Mexico (5) 47 48 4 48 51 4.1
Nevada (5) 50 44 4 53 45 4.0
New Hampshire (4) 48 49 3.1 49 50 3.7
Maine (4) 39 50 5 44 52 3.2
West Virginia (5) 51 43 4 51 43 4.0
Hawaii (4) 46 45.4 4 46 45 4.0
Other states
Alabama (9) 55.9 31.9 4.2 57 39 4.0
Alaska (3) 57 30 4 57 30 4.0
Arizona (10) 47 42 4.1 56 41 4.1
California (55) 42 49 3.2 43 54 3.6
Connecticut (7) 42 52 4 42 52 4.0
Delaware (3) 40.8 49.3 3.9 38 45 3.9
District of Columbia (3) 11 78 4 11 78 4
Georgia (15) 52 42 4.5 52 42 4.5
Idaho (4) 59 30 4 59 30 4.0
Illinois (21) 40 54 4 42 54 3.9
Indiana (11) 56 40 4 58 39 4.1
Kansas (6) 59 30 4.1 60 37 3.8
Kentucky (8) 56 39 3.7 59 38 4.0
Louisiana (9) 58 32 4 50 38 3.5
Maryland (10) 39 56 4 43 54 4.1
Massachusetts (12) 35.9 50.6 3.5 36 50 3.5
Mississippi (6) 51 42 4 51 42 4.0
Montana (3) 57 36 4 57 36 4.0
Nebraska (5) 61 32 4.1 61 32 3.1
New York (31) 37 52 3 39 57 4.0
North Carolina (15) 52 43 4 53 45 4.0
North Dakota (3) 55 35 4 55 35 4.0
Oklahoma (7) 61 28 4.4 64 34 3.7
Rhode Island (4) 30 58 4 41 54 4.1
South Carolina (8) 53 40 4 57 39 4.2
South Dakota (3) 55 36 3.5 55 36 3.5
Tennessee (11) 53 41 4 58 40 4.0
Texas (34) 58 32 3.4 59 37 4.1
Utah (5) 69 24 2.8 69 24 2.8
Vermont (3) 40 53 5 40 53 4.0
Virginia (13) 50 44 4 51 47 4.1
Washington (11) 45 50 3.5 47 51 4.0
Wyoming (3) 65 29 4 65 29 4.0

Other info (jump back to the vote shares)

2.004k.com realclearpolitics.com
State Nader Pollster and Date Nader Pollster and Date
Battleground states
Florida (27) 1 FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics | 10/30 - 10/31 - Zogby | 10/29-11/1
Pennsylvania (21) 0 CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 10/28 - 10/31 - SurveyUSA | 10/31-11/1
Ohio (20) 0 FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics | 10/30 - 10/31 - Zogby | 10/29-11/1
Michigan (17) 1 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - Zogby | 10/29-11/1
New Jersey (15) 2 Quinnipiac University | 10/27 - 10/31 1 Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31
Missouri (11) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - SurveyUSA| 10/29-31
Wisconsin (10) 1 FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics | 10/30 - 10/31 - Zogby | 10/29-11/1
Minnesota (10) 2 CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 10/28 - 10/30 - Zogby | 10/29-11/1
Colorado (9) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - Survey USA | 10/30-11/1
Iowa (7) 1 FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics | 10/30 - 10/31 - SurveyUSA | 10/29-11/1
Oregon (7) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29
Arkansas (6) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - SurveyUSA | 10/31-11/1
New Mexico (5) 1 American Research Group | 10/27 - 10/30 - Zogby | 10/29-11/1
Nevada (5) 1 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - SurveyUSA | 10/30-11/1
New Hampshire (4) 0 WMUR / UNH | 10/28 - 10/31 1 UNH Tracking | 10/29-31
Maine (4) 1 Zogby International | 10/20 - 10/21 - SurveyUSA | 10/28-30
West Virginia (5) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/26 - 10/29 - Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29
Hawaii (4) 0 Honolulu Star-Bulletin | 10/17 - 10/20 - SMS Research | 10/17-20
Other states
Alabama (9) 1.2 Capital Survey Research | 10/12 - 10/14 - SurveyUSA | 10/25-10/27
Alaska (3) 5 American Research Group | 9/9 - 9/11 5 ARG | 9/9-9/11
Arizona (10) 0 KAET-TV | 10/19 - 10/21 - SurveyUSA | 10/28-30
California (55) 0 The Field Poll | 10/21 - 10/27 - SurveyUSA | 10/29-31
Connecticut (7) 3 Research 2000 | 10/26 - 10/28 3 Research 2000 | 10/26-28
Delaware (3) 0.5 West Chester University | 9/22 - 9/25 2 WHYY-TV | 9/22-9/25
District of Columbia (3) 6 American Research Group | 9/11 - 9/13 (from 2.004k.com)
Georgia (15) 0 Zogby International | 10/27 - 10/29 - Zogby/AJC | 10/27-29
Idaho (4) 3 American Research Group | 9/8 - 9/10 3 ARG | 9/8-9/10
Illinois (21) 0 Research 2000 | 10/27 - 10/28 - SurveyUSA | 10/27-29
Indiana (11) 0 Research 2000 | 10/22 - 10/24 - SurveyUSA | 10/27-29
Kansas (6) 1 Kansas City Star | 10/22 - 10/26 - SurveyUSA | 10/25-10/27
Kentucky (8) 1 The Bluegrass Poll | 10/18 - 10/20 - SurveyUSA | 10/28-30
Louisiana (9) 1 SLU | 10/17 - 10/22 - UNO | 10/13-10/21
Maryland (10) 0 Baltimore Sun | 10/25 - 10/26 - SurveyUSA | 10/27-29
Massachusetts (12) 2.2 Merrimack College | 9/25 - 10/5 2 Merrimack | 9/25-10/5
Mississippi (6) 1 American Research Group | 9/14 - 9/17 1 ARG | 9/14-9/17
Montana (3) 1 Mason-Dixon | 10/18 - 10/20 1 Mason Dixon | 10/18-10/20
Nebraska (5) 0 Omaha World-Herald | 10/15 - 10/20 - RKM | 10/15-10/20
New York (31) 0 Siena Research Institute | 10/25 - 10/28 - SurveyUSA | 10/26-10/28
North Carolina (15) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/25 - 10/26 - SurveyUSA | 10/29-31
North Dakota (3) 0 Minnesota State University | 10/18 - 10/19 1 MSU/WDAY | wk of 10/18
Oklahoma (7) 0 Wilson Research Strategies | 10/22 - 10/24 - SurveyUSA | 10/28-30
Rhode Island (4) 4 American Research Group | 9/11 - 9/13 - SurveyUSA | 10/25-10/27
South Carolina (8) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/19 - 10/20 - SUSA | 10/22-10/24
South Dakota (3) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/19 - 10/21 - Mason-Dixon | 10/19-21
Tennessee (11) 1 Mason-Dixon | 10/19 - 10/21 - SurveyUSA | 10/28-30
Texas (34) 0 Scripps Research Center | 10/11 - 10/28 - SurveyUSA | 10/26-10/28
Utah (5) 1 Dan Jones & Associates | 10/21 - 10/28 1 Deseret News | 10/21-28
Vermont (3) 3 Research 2000 | 10/10 - 10/12 3 Research 2000 | 10/10-10/12
Virginia (13) 0 Mason-Dixon | !10/22 - 10/25 - SurveyUSA | 10/27-29
Washington (11) 0 Mason-Dixon | 10/25 - 10/26 - SurveyUSA | 10/29-31
Wyoming (3) 2 American Research Group | 9/9 - 9/11 2 ARG | 9/9-9/11