y = [ 116.8 120.1 123.2 130.2 131.4 125.6 124.5 134.3 ... 135.2 151.8 146.4 139.0 127.8 147.0 165.9 165.5 ... 179.4 190.0 189.8 190.9 203.6 183.5 169.3 144.2 ... 141.5 154.3 169.5 193.0 203.2 192.9 209.4 227.2 ... 263.7 297.8 337.1 361.3 355.2 312.6 309.9 323.7 ... 324.1 355.3 383.4 395.1 412.8 406.0 438.0 446.1 ... 452.5 447.3 475.9 487.7 497.2 529.8 551.0 581.1 ... 617.8 658.1 675.2 706.6 724.7 ]; T = size(y,2); lead = 0; Nz = 2; a = zeros(Nz,1); F = [1 1; 0 1]; Ny = 1; b = zeros(Ny,1); H = [1 0]; var = eye(Ny+Nz)*1e-3; fprintf('\nLikelihood Evaluation of SSM\n'); fprintf('DATA: Annual Real GNP 1909-1969\n\n'); logl = kalcvf(y, lead, a, F, b, H, var); fprintf('No initial values are given\n'); fprintf('LOGL = %.2f\n\n', logl); z0 = a; vz0 = eye(Nz)*1e-3; logl = kalcvf(y, lead, a, F, b, H, var, z0, vz0); fprintf('Initial values are given\n'); fprintf('LOGL = %.2f\n\n', logl); lead = 1; z0 = a; vz0 = eye(Nz)*10; [logl, pred, vpred, filt, vfilt] = kalcvf(y, lead, a, F, b, H, var, z0, vz0); fprintf('Filtering and One-Step Prediction\n'); fprintf(' Y PRED FILT\n') format,disp([y(1:16); pred(:,1:16); filt(:,1:16)]')