Research - Business Cycles
Michele Boldrin
"Habit
Persistence, Assets Returns and the Business Cycle",
(with L.
Christiano and J. Fisher)
First version: October
1994. American Economic Review 91 (2001), 149-166. Tables
and Figures
We introduce two modifications into the
standard real business cycle model : habit persistence
preferences and limitations on intersectoral factor
mobility.The resulting model is consistent with the observed mean equity
premium, mean risk free rate and Sharpe ratio on equity.With respect to
the conventional measures of business cycle volatility and comovement,
the model does roughly as well as the standard real business cycle model
. On four other dimensions its business cycle implications represent a
substantial improvement. It accounts for (i) persistence in output, (ii)
the observation that employment across different sectors moves together
over the business cycle, (iii) the evidence of excess sensitivity' of
consumption growth to output growth, and (iv) the `inverted leading
indicator property of interest rates, 'that high interest rates are
negatively correlated with future output.
"A Theory of Growth Cycles,"
(with Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde)
Prelimnary Version: November 3, 2005
This paper investigates the role of labor-saving technological choices in the generation and propagation of business cycles. We emphasize the importance of endogenously varying relative factor prices as a force behind the introduction of new technologies and the scrapping of existing ones. To do so, we mix pieces of Smith, Marx, Ramsey, Von Neumann, Hicks, Goodwin, Paella, Prescott, Canoce, Tronti, Ortega y Gasset, and many unquoted or onquotable others. VERY AND TRULY PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE. HANDLE WITH CARE, PLEASE.
Things I am working on -- forthcoming papers.....
"What
if Factor Shares are Not Constant? Implications for Growth and Business
Cycle Theories."
(With Carmen Carrido Ruiz, Universidad Carlos III,
Madrid) Extended
Abstract
"The Equity Premium was
but is no Longer a Puzzle, the Q-Ratio was and Still is, Big Time."
(With Adrian Peralta
Alva, University of Miami) Slides
from Preliminary Draft
